After the 9th May vandalism on the state’s military installations, Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) faces a massive crackdown. PTI leaders are leaving the party one after another and those staying face arrests and a pending trial in the controversial military courts.  As PTI awaits a potential permanent ban and its Chairman Imran Khan may be tried in a military court and disqualified, the uncertainty around general elections in 2023 grows further in a politically unstable Pakistan.

The political crisis in Pakistan has deepened since Imran Khan’s ouster from power last year. The resulting instability has thrown the country into political polarization across every level of society. 

Political polarization thrives at a time when the country’s economy is on the verge of potential default, 33 million flood-affected people seek rehabilitation, the inflation rate has risen to  37.97 per cent,  and terrorism is resurging as a whole-of-society threat. Yet, the political infighting continues between the ruling coalition of the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and the beleaguered PTI, which undermines governance, derails the political process, and threatens democracy in Pakistan.

Zero-Sum Politics is Touching New Heights

Political polarization refers to the prevalent divergence in political attitudes towards ideological extremes. In Pakistan’s case, it has translated into extreme jostling for power and maneuvering for latent intentions, from civilian leaders to the military elite, and from bureaucracy to the public.

The political climate in Islamabad is volatile, with the government and opposition parties engaging in a heated tug-of-war. The May 9 riots following Imran Khan’s arrest have allowed the PDM government to dismantle the popular PTI and cleared the path for a relatively better position in the general elections. While Imran Khan was released following Supreme Court orders, the political climate has turned upside down with a beleaguered PTI at the receiving end of the state-sanctioned crackdown. Thousands of PTI workers have been arrested, leaders are being forced to quit the party, and critical journalists disappeared. While all this continues, the constitution remains violated as the caretaker government failed to conduct elections in two of the country’s largest provinces, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

In March, after failed attempts to arrest Imran Khan, Pakistan’s Interior Minister remarked that “either Imran exists or we do.” He went on to threaten that “when we feel our existence is being threatened, we will reach a point where we will not care whether a move is democratic or not.” These veiled threats are not only a reflection of despotism but also a thriving political impunity, enabling the excessive use of force against the political workers of the opposition, media, and rights activists.

At the outset of this deepening political and economic crisis, political polarization has risen to exacerbate governance challenges, derail the electoral process, and threaten the fundamental features of democracy in Pakistan.

Divisive Political Discourse and Governance Challenges

Since the political transition of power in April 2022, the Pakistani political discourse has taken a downward spiral with a divisive and threatening tone. This has generated an estranging set of narratives and exposed the detrimental impact of political polarization over the political, security, and economic situation in Pakistan.

Political

After months of political jockeying for and against elections between PTI and the PDM government, the Supreme Court’s decision ordering the conduct of elections within the 90-day mandate has put the political process back on track. However, the refusal of the Shehbaz Sharif government to abide by the verdict, terming it a “murder of justice” – bringing the government and judiciary face to face. Also, the fact that some judges of the Supreme Court refused from hearing the PTI petition, gives an optic of judicial polarization over the contemporary political situation in the country.

Previously, Imran Khan’s directive to dissolve the provincial assemblies in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa appears to have been a political mistake. The PDM shied away from conducting elections. The Supreme Court intervened after the ECP delayed the election to October – transgressing the Constitutional mandate of 90 days – on account of a lack of funds and a deteriorating security situation. After the PTI challenged the ECP’s decision and sought the Supreme Court’s intervention; the government of Pakistan introduced a bill in the national assembly on March 28th, titled the Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure) Act, 2023, aimed at limiting the powers of the Supreme Court.

Before the issue of elections was settled, the ruling coalition arrested Imran Khan from the premises of Islamabad High Court, giving rise to a mass level of public discontent and violence on May 9, 2023. Using May 9 violence as a pretext, the ruling PDM began dismantling PTI and trying its leaders including Imran Khan under the Army Act.

Security

Over the past decade, Pakistan has experienced the worst wave of cross-border terrorism, especially from the north-western borders. The country has suffered from bloodshed, loss of precious human lives, catastrophic economic loss, and destabilization that continues to prevail.

Unfortunately, the horrors of the past resurfaced when peace talks between the government and the proscribed group Tehreek-i-Taliban (TTP) failed last year, resulting in the end of a ceasefire and the resumption of terrorist attacks. However, what presents an even bleaker picture is the lack of consensus between the government and opposition parties to find common ground to combat this whole-of-society threat. The security situation has deteriorated mainly because of the divided political house in Islamabad, with no apparent strategy to tackle the threat.

Previously in 2014, the atrocious attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar compelled the government and opposition parties to come together and announced a National Action Plan (NAP) to combat terrorism.

Despite the resurgence of militant threats in the country, the coalition government failed to convene a single APC. The government and the PTI leaders infused the security situation into their politics and resorted to a mutual blame game. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the Foreign Minister, accused the previous Khan’s government of appeasing the terrorists, while PTI leaders blamed the government for failing to take stringent measures against the terrorist groups. In such a scenario, when the government and the opposition are politicizing the security situation, there is little reason to suggest an improvement in security and governance challenges in the country.

Economic

Pakistan finds itself in the worst economic crisis in decades. Most of the indicators are giving a grim outlook, and are compounded exponentially by the political crisis in Islamabad.

Terming the IMF bailout package as “treating cancer with aspirin”, PTI Chairman Imran Khan criticized the incumbent government’s economic policies. The Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar hit back at the previous Khan government for the current economic conundrum, alleging that it is the result of the PTI government’s economic mismanagement and failed policies. Despite the declining economic situation, Ishaq Dar reassures that default is not an imminent possibility.

While the coalition government was looking for a breakthrough with a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the PTI leaders discredited the government’s economic policies. For this reason, after a series of failed talks with the IMF, the government accused the PTI of jeopardizing the IMF deal. The accusations came also after the previous PTI government in KP allegedly refused to implement the terms of the IMF agreement in a letter, as part of “a ploy to plunge Pakistan into an economic crisis.” The then KP Finance Minister informed the federal minister that the provincial government might find it difficult to run a provincial surplus, keeping the flood-related damages in mind. Ensuring surpluses by the provincial governments was agreed upon as a key requirement to revive the IMF program.

The former finance minister Miftah Ismail’s accusations against the PTI government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa further highlight the politicization of the economy. The refusal to implement the terms of the IMF agreement, as alleged by Ismail, could be seen as an attempt by the PTI to gain political leverage over the federal government.

In a nutshell, this situation reflects the deep-seated political polarization that exists within the current political elite, where rival political parties and factions are often at odds with each other at almost every level, making it challenging to reach a consensus to rescue the country from the prevailing economic malaise.

Youth and Polarization

While political polarization is gaining ground in Pakistan’s political, economic, and security domains, the Pakistani youth – making up 63% of the population – remains at the forefront of its impact. According to Gallup Pakistan, the youth voter turnout in the 2018 general elections was only 31.5%. Thousands of youth that came out to protest Imran Khan’s arrest ended up in Jails with a future tied to the prevailing power politics in Islamabad. After the May 9 events and the ensuing political fiasco, the picture of the upcoming elections and prospects of youth participation are even bleaker.

With the ruling PDM at the helm, the uncertainty around general elections is detrimental to Pakistan’s frailing democracy. The youth with an unrewarding career and lack of political choices finds their future in despair. With more than 800, 000 skilled youth leaving the country in 2022, the current political instability and declining economic prospects would potentially accelerate the brain drain situation.

The political elite needs to understand that today’s youth is more aware, politically active, and technologically connected. They can no longer be convinced using roadside banners but by a pure political performance that takes their country forward and create new opportunities for them to thrive without having to seek shelter abroad.

Looking Ahead

Political polarization is at the heart of the prevailing poly-crisis in Pakistan, leading to a divided polity and obstructionist policies that have exacerbated governance challenges and threatened democratic norms. To address this issue, the foremost step is to strengthen its democratic values by maintaining stability among the principal state organs i.e. Legislature, Judiciary, and Executive.

To lift the country of this multifaceted crisis, running a smooth political process is inevitable. As the cornerstone of a democratic society, it’s critical to ensure that free and fair elections are held within the constitutional mandate. A strong and independent electoral commission is also crucial to ensuring the credibility of the electoral process.

The supremacy of the constitution is at the heart of any functioning democratic society. Given the deepening political polarization and its purported impact on upholding the constitution will bring insurmountable damage to the political future of Pakistan. In this regard, delaying elections will only aggravate political instability. Banning PTI or keeping Imran out of the elections will set a dangerous precedent as similar measures in the past has been counterproductive to a healthy electoral process and democracy. Therefore, to stabilize the situation, political leadership must come forward, surrender their vested interest and negotiate, leave aside politics of vengeance, and conduct free and fair general elections.

*This Blog post is written by Khadijah Saeed. She is the Programs Officer at Accountability Lab Pakistan.