In this interview with Accountability Lab, Dr. Khalid Mahmood Shafi discussed the impact of climate change on flood frequency and intensity in Pakistan, the country’s preparedness to address these challenges, and the potential for enhancing cooperation with neighboring India in dealing with climate-related threats. Additionally, Dr. Khalid explored strategies for forming a regional alliance among South Asian countries to effectively tackle climate change and its consequences. The upcoming COP 28 and the feasibility of funding pledges received by Pakistan from Global North countries were also addressed.

Khadijah Saeed: What is the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of floods in Pakistan, especially considering the recent massive floods experienced last year and this year? According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), there are concerns about a potential recurrence of such situations. In terms of preparedness, where does Pakistan currently stand to address these challenges?

Dr. Khalid Mahmood Shafi: Climate change has had a significant impact on the frequency and intensity of floods in Pakistan, as evident by the country’s inclusion among the top ten on the Climate Risk Index (CRI). One of the prime vulnerabilities faced by Pakistan is the occurrence of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). These floods are a result of melting glaciers, leading to the formation of glacial lakes that can burst and cause devastating floods.

Both the government and civil society need to take comprehensive measures to address climate change challenges. Pakistan has progressed beyond climate denial and recognized the severity of the issue. However, more action is needed at all levels. Preparedness is currently lacking, but Pakistan has started moving in the right direction. For this, legislation and measures to address pollution should be implemented to ensure preparedness.

It is crucial for Pakistan to improve its preparedness and adaptation efforts, as well as address the losses and damages caused by these floods. People in Pakistan have often perceived these climate threats as natural disasters, but it is now scientifically proven that the impact of floods can be much greater than anticipated. People do not understand, but now it has been statistically proven that enhancing wind speeds from 75 mph to 150 mph doesn’t enhance the damage twice but by about 256 times. Cyclones and tornadoes were present previously too, but human actions have increased their frequency, intensity and the proportion of damages done.

Pakistan faces the adverse effects of climate change, including increased frequency and intensity of floods like GLOFs. Relying solely on money and technology to control nature is a false sense of complacency. A holistic approach, combining technology and community-based solutions, should be adopted. Although progress has been made in acknowledging climate change, preparedness remains insufficient. Legislation and comprehensive measures are needed to mitigate flood impacts and address pollution.

Khadijah Saeed: In light of the recent Biparjoy cyclone, how do you think Pakistan can enhance its preparedness for such extreme weather events?

Dr. Khalid Mahmood Shafi: Recognizing the threats faced by coastal areas globally, it is crucial to allocate funding before disasters occur. Nature-based solutions such as sand dunes, sea grasses, coral reefs, and mangroves can act as natural buffers. Demolishing old infrastructure and incorporating technology in new buildings and creating new sustainable cities can improve resilience in line with SDG 11. Additionally, involving indigenous people and their local solutions is essential for a comprehensive response.

Khadijah Saeed: Being neighboring countries, how can India and Pakistan foster cooperation rather than confrontation to address the challenges posed by climate change, including natural disasters like floods and the shared threat of cyclone Biparjoy? What specific initiatives and strategies can be implemented to enhance collaboration between the two countries in dealing with the shared risks and impacts? Furthermore, considering the increased vulnerability of countries in South Asia to climate change, how can these nations come together to form a regional alliance for effectively tackling climate change and its consequences?

Dr. Khalid Mahmood Shafi: It is crucial to recognize that global climate challenges do not recognize man-made borders, and joint action is necessary while there is still time. Examples of western nations collectively combating climate threats can serve as a guidance.

The impact of natural disasters like Biparjoy have affected Mumbai and Karachi, highlighting the shared risks both countries face. Cooperation and coordination between India and Pakistan are key to success in responding to climate disasters. A joint approach should consider border areas on both sides, integrating environmental policies, planning, and development strategies. Collective response mechanisms are needed for addressing issues such as earthquakes and floods in the north, wildfires and air pollution in the center, and droughts and cyclones in the south.

To enhance collaboration, a bilateral coordination mechanism is essential, especially considering the existing lack of trust between the two nations. Additionally, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) should play an active role in addressing climate vulnerabilities and coordinating efforts among the countries in the region, given the statistics on population and climate vulnerabilities in South Asia.

Rather than engaging in an arms race or focusing on nuclear arsenals, the focus should be on an “Earth” or “green” race. As neighbours, India and Pakistan must recognize that they sink or swim together in the face of climate change. By prioritizing cooperation, joint initiatives, and regional alliances, the two countries can effectively tackle climate change and its consequences, ensuring a more sustainable and resilient future for the region.

Khadijah Saeed: With COP 28 approaching and considering that Pakistan has received funding pledges from countries in the Global North, how realistic do you think it is for these pledges to be fulfilled, given the historical track record of countries not meeting their commitments?

Dr. Khalid Mahmood Shafi: The fulfillment of funding pledges for Pakistan from countries in the Global North, as we approach COP 28, remains a realistic challenge considering the historical track record of countries not meeting their commitments in climate action.

While there have been pledges and goals in climate action history, commitments have often fallen short. However, there have been positive developments, such as Pakistan’s leadership in COP 27, where they spearheaded an accord to establish a fund for loss and damage. This success provides momentum to an important and controversial issue within the COP summit.

Pakistan has had limited access to international climate finance, with only a few projects approved by organizations such as the Adaptation Fund, Green Climate Fund, and Global Environment Facility. The limited admission to international financing mechanisms is primarily due to factors like limited capacity, lack of technical expertise, and challenges in submitting high-quality proposals that qualify for available climate and green-financing opportunities.

To ensure accountability, COP 28 should establish clear timelines, incentives for fulfilling pledges, and penalties for non-compliance. Pakistan needs a dedicated team of professionals to secure benefits from the loss and damage fund by studying eligibility criteria, assessing resources, and optimizing their ability to access climate finance. Despite challenges, countries must prioritize meeting commitments, improve accountability guidelines, and enhance their capacity to effectively utilize climate finance.

*This interview was conducted by Khadijah Saeed. She is the Program Officer at Accountability Lab Pakistan.